~Summer Around the Pacific Northwest~
RED FLAG WARNINGS have been extended through early Sunday for parts of our forecast area * Click here for all the latest information.......
Exclusive Inland NW Summary Issued: Thursday, September 3, 2026 @ 9:00pm
WRITTEN BY: Climatologist Bob Lutz
(Summaries are issued as needed and will be updated more frequently during times of active weather)
SHORT-TERM FORECAST
A storm wobbling around just offshore will continue to spin additional systems into the Northwest. Forecast confidence regarding the exact track of each individual disturbance remains low, so expect changes to the precipitation side of the forecasts through the upcoming holiday weekend. There is much higher confidence that cooler than average temperatures will continue through much of the period. With the colder air mass aloft, instability could also result in the continuation of some scattered thunderstorm activity at any given place and time, especially during the afternoon hours.
Next to July, September is typically the 2nd driest month of the year, so any widespread precipitation is a bonus! It is hoped that there will be enough precipitation to pause or even put an early end to the brutal wildfire season around parts of the Northwest!
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Models remain in slightly better agreement in that periods of unsettled weather will continue right through the Labor Day weekend and possibly beyond. The highest chances for more widespread precipitation is expected to arrive by later Sunday into Labor Day Monday. In between disturbances, expect a mix of sun & clouds, near-seasonal temperatures, and breezy conditions at times.
SPECIAL WINTER OUTLOOK COMMENTARY
The forecast of a "super El Nino" already has a few of our local meterologists pulling the trigger on predicting yet another dry winter, but I have to say that I strongly disagree with making such a prediction this early on! I have been watching this equatorial Pacific phenomenon for over 40 years, and quite frankly, I have seen some El Nino winters come with much better precipitation than many of our recent La Niña events, which are "supposed" to be cold and wet. Prime examples are what happened last year AND the winter before. The basis of my disagreement is that there are many other weather phenomena that interconnect to form our weather patterns here in the Northwest. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) certainly have more of an effect on the outcome of our Northwest winters than the stand-alone monitoring of the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Add in the unpredictability of the Arctic Oscillation (which can change course in just a matter of days) and you can clearly see why making a prediction this far out is a bit premature! So in summary, don't hang up those skis or sell the winter gear quite yet, as there is certainly much more to monitor in the weeks ahead!
General Short-Term Model Agreement: GOOD
General Long-Term Model Agreement: FAIR
Our hearts and prayers continue to go out to all those affected by the historic Northwest wildfires. The long-term recovery process is now underway, and it's never too late to help. Please consider making a charitable donation by clicking on the icon below. With Innovia, your donation stays local, and they have much lower overhead which means more of your money goes to the fire victims...
