~Summer Around the Pacific Northwest~
RED FLAG WARNINGS have been extended through early Sunday for parts of our forecast area * Click here for all the latest information.......
Exclusive Inland NW Summary Issued: Sunday, August 30, 2026 @ 10:15pm
WRITTEN BY: Climatologist Bob Lutz
(Summaries are issued as needed and will be updated more frequently during times of active weather)
SHORT-TERM FORECAST
A significant pattern change is about to kick into 2nd gear!! The pattern change that got underway this past weekend will see a brief interlude as a temporary ridge of high pressure transits the region. This will give us a quiet start to the new workweek along with milder temperatures. Then on Tuesday, expect clouds to be on the increase ahead of an unusually early cool & wet pattern, one that is more typically seen in October! While most models have remained very consistent at forecasting this significant change, there remain some differences as to where the more beneficial rains will occur. (As you know, we have seen precipitation go right around us over and over again this past summer.) Most models do agree that measurable showers will be on the increase Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thereafter, models are less certain about where more disturbances of various size and strength will track through the rest of the workweek. Each will certainly give us the chance of measurable shower and thunderstorm activity along with cooler-than-normal temperatures. If this pattern does indeed come to full fruition, then it would result in an appreciable pause, or even an early start to the end of our brutal wildfire season around parts of the Northwest!!
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Models continue to advertise more unsettled weather right through the Labor Day weekend and beyond, but again, this all depends on how the pattern unfolds this week. At this time, it looks like we will see a mix of sun & clouds, near-seasonal temperatures, and the chance of showers or thunderstorms from time to time through much of the extended period, but as of now, no one day looks like a total washout.
SPECIAL WINTER OUTLOOK COMMENTARY
The forecast of a "super El Nino" already has a few of our local meterologists pulling the trigger on predicting yet another dry winter, but I have to say that I strongly disagree with making such a prediction this early on! I have been watching this equatorial Pacific phenomenon for over 40 years, and quite frankly, I have seen some El Nino winters come with much better precipitation than many of our recent La Niña events, which are "supposed" to be cold and wet. Prime examples are what happened last year AND the winter before. The basis of my disagreement is that there are many other weather phenomena that interconnect to form our weather patterns here in the Northwest. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) certainly have more of an effect on the outcome of our Northwest winters than the stand-alone monitoring of the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Add in the unpredictability of the Arctic Oscillation (which can change course in just a matter of days) and you can clearly see why making a prediction this far out is a bit premature! So in summary, don't hang up those skis or sell the winter gear quite yet, as there is certainly much more to monitor in the weeks ahead!
General Short-Term Model Agreement: GOOD
General Long-Term Model Agreement: FAIR
Our hearts and prayers continue to go out to all those affected by the historic Northwest wildfires this season. Please consider making a donation by clicking on the icons below. Having been a part of the Oregon Road Fire Long-Term Recovery Team, I can attest to the fact that these two organizations will keep your donation local. In addition, Innovia has a much lower overhead, which means more of your money goes to the fire victims. Each link will take you directly to the local donation page...
