~Summer Around the Pacific Northwest~
RED FLAG WARNINGS have been extended through early Sunday for parts of our forecast area * Click here for all the latest information.......
Exclusive Inland NW Summary Issued: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 @ 7:15am
WRITTEN BY: Climatologist Bob Lutz
(Summaries are issued as needed and will be updated more frequently during times of active weather)
SHORT-TERM FORECAST
So here we go... A more significant pattern change is about to unfold in the days ahead, with the first signs being increased cloud cover today and the chance of a few scattered showers this afternoon. Given the model diversity that I have been observing over the past few days, it comes as no surprise that once again, much of the major precipitation will elude our immediate forecast area, with the more significant shower activity staying south and east; however, this is just round one! Additional disturbances will continue to pinwheel into the Northwest, each bringing with it a renewed chance of some much needed rainfall. There will be a better chance for measurable rain on Wednesday and again on Thursday. In fact, the weather may become even more dynamic at times, which will result in the chance of some thunderstorm activity. In summary, I think most locations will see some degree of measurable rain before it is all said and done. Temperatures will come in cooler than average, and it will be breezy at times, making it feel more like early fall! If this pattern does indeed come to full fruition over the next several days, then it would result in an appreciable pause, or even an early start to the end of our brutal wildfire season around parts of the Northwest!
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Models continue to advertise more unsettled weather right through the Labor Day weekend and beyond, but again, this all depends on how the pattern unfolds through the rest of the week. At this time, it still looks like we will see a mix of sun & clouds, near-seasonal temperatures, and the chance of showers or thunderstorms each day through much of the extended period. Even so, no one day looks like a total washout.
SPECIAL WINTER OUTLOOK COMMENTARY
The forecast of a "super El Nino" already has a few of our local meterologists pulling the trigger on predicting yet another dry winter, but I have to say that I strongly disagree with making such a prediction this early on! I have been watching this equatorial Pacific phenomenon for over 40 years, and quite frankly, I have seen some El Nino winters come with much better precipitation than many of our recent La Niña events, which are "supposed" to be cold and wet. Prime examples are what happened last year AND the winter before. The basis of my disagreement is that there are many other weather phenomena that interconnect to form our weather patterns here in the Northwest. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) certainly have more of an effect on the outcome of our Northwest winters than the stand-alone monitoring of the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Add in the unpredictability of the Arctic Oscillation (which can change course in just a matter of days) and you can clearly see why making a prediction this far out is a bit premature! So in summary, don't hang up those skis or sell the winter gear quite yet, as there is certainly much more to monitor in the weeks ahead!
General Short-Term Model Agreement: GOOD
General Long-Term Model Agreement: FAIR
Our hearts and prayers continue to go out to all those affected by the historic Northwest wildfires this season. Please consider making a donation by clicking on the icons below. Having been a part of the Oregon Road Fire Long-Term Recovery Team, I can attest to the fact that these two organizations will keep your donation local. In addition, Innovia has a much lower overhead, which means more of your money goes to the fire victims. Each link will take you directly to the local donation page...
